Sunday, April 29, 2012

April 22-28 Douchie

Well it was an exciting week with the review of Okie Oilman's site and the subsequent scurrying/denying/deleting/revamping that occurred.  I'm going to need some time to sort through everything to form any conclusions about who is guilty of what and just what the heck Miskebam was up to, so I'll withhold any comments for now.  Let's just get straight to the weekly award presentation.

Sometimes these Douchie Awards are close - a photo finish if you will.  A few have even been declared a tie.  But then there are those times when some douchebag just absolutely runs off and leaves the rest of the pack in their dust like Secretariat did at the 1973 Belmont. 


On Monday night I listened to a conference call from Brad Huebner and Charlie Emmenecker from the BH Group.  Folks, it was 27 minutes of unmitigated shameless douchebaggery.  Not even two minutes into the call Brad brings up "the blessing", characterizing the RV as a gift from the almighty to level the international playing field.  A minute later he was going on about the RV-O-Meter (Currency Newshound's unofficial indicator of how close the RV is) being set at 99.4%.  Actually it's been over 99% since late 2010 and just goes up a few pips now and then ... you know, kinda like the IQD. 

He then proceeds to give us the latest up-to-date dinar news, straight from the streets of Las Vegas.  That's right folks, Ali Agha and Dinar Trade are back.  Well, that's sort of dinar news.  I mean at least we have another place to sell the stuff now.   Brad then goes off on a tangent about Ali's comments about the maneuverings in Iraq between the CBI and the GOI, stating that Shabibi has a 3 stage plan to revalue the IQD and make it into a "world currency reserve" that would enable countries to get paid back for all they've done for Iraq.  Try as I might, I have never been able to locate any document to support this claim.  Somebody help me out here.

Brad then mentions one of the leaders of his exchange group that "has some 2.5 trillion dinars committed to our group" (that's over $2 billion, people .... anybody smell horse poop here?  Maybe he meant 2.5 billion.  Who knows?  Could just be another case of dinar math.)  He states that as a precursor to his claim that US banks have had a change of heart about the IQD over the past four weeks, and the logical conclusion (according to Brad) is that they want to keep the dinars here in the US to buy cheap oil with in the future rather than allowing them to be returned to Iraq by dinar dealers.  The problem with this reasoning of course, is that Iraq's oil has been purchased in US dollars for the last forty years, and if we allow the use or start using other currencies for that purpose the status of the USD as the global reserve currency will crumble.  So Mr. Huebner better damn well hope dinars aren't used to buy Iraq's oil any time soon.  Think it through, Brad.

He then goes on to pump, pump, pump.  "Dinar 101".  "Buy dinar".  "Tell other people to buy dinar".  "The Treasury Vault is our exclusive supplier of dinar."  (True, because unfortunately Brad's dinars were confiscated in an IRS raid.)  "Be sure to mention that you're a member of the BH Group so you'll get all the benefits you're entitled to."  Translation: "Let Roger and Angela know that I sent you so that I'll get my cut."

Then Brad puts the "ouch" in "douchebag" when he takes a swipe at Ali, claiming that Ali is duplicating The Treasury Vault's no-risk reserve program after taking millions from people in his previous reserve program.  I doubt you'll hear Ali on any BH calls any time soon after that.

Brad then puts the icing on the cake when he pitches his new (penny stock) venture of buying up existing businesses and developing them, comparing what they're doing to what Mitt Romney and Warren Buffet did to get where they are and even referring to this as "a mini-Berkshire-Hathaway being hatched".  Really guys?  You're comparing yourselves to the likes of Romney and Buffett?

Wrapping up the call Charlie and Brad discuss all of the new discoveries of oil in Iraq, which we are supposed to conclude will translate into an increase in the value of the dinar.  (As our friend John Jagerson points out, owning the currency of a country with a growing economy isn't like owning stock in a growing company.  Often countries with growing economies have currencies that depreciate.)  They go on to mention a new auto manufacturing facility in Iraq, and say "look what happened to China's economy when they started building cars!"  Folks, do a quick check of China's currency over the past 15 years.  It's gone up a little over 30%.  That's about 2% a year.  None of what Brad and Charlie talked about here has anything to do with making money off the dinar.  If you want to profit from the economic growth in Iraq you'd probably be better off investing in companies who are making money in Iraq. 

After a quick pitch for Xango (do yourself a favour and Google the keywords "Xango" and "snake oil")  Charlie says he's looking forward to hearing what our dear friend Tony Breitling has to say in the coming days, which in and of itself is infinitely doucheworthy.  Oy vey!  

https://www.freeconferencing.com/playback.html?cid=conferences/3-17-65-6712039-17-65-6769115104-20-108-82-17-65-671042641-17-65-67.mp3&e=1351656000000&cn=94-43-28-63


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Thursday, April 26, 2012

Okie or not Okie? (With apologies to Will Shakespeare)

A few months ago I interviewed a very informed dinarian who goes by the name of Azrael.  His website "People's Dinar is a Joke" served as the inspiration for this blog.  In that interview he stated his belief that Okie Oilman had departed from the dinar scene a year ago and that the Okie persona was hijacked more or less by members of the current OOM website.  (In his opinion the original Okie was well informed and truly connected but his replacement is clueless.)  I don't really follow that site too much so I wasn't sure about his claim, but recently I came across a recording of "Okie" from March of this year (starting at about 40 minutes in) and I am now convinced that Azrael is right.  The Okie in this call does not sound like the Okie of 2010.



Adding to the mystery is the discovery of a cabal whistleblower named Drake who was recently interviewed by David Wilcock.  (About 2 hours 10 minutes into the interview he discusses global settlements and the realignment of world currencies.) 



This guy has Okie's pronunciation and accent to a T, but sounds younger and a little more sophisticated.  Is he the same guy who did the Okie character?  Is he Okie's younger brother?   Did Okie die?  Did the men in black take him away?  Somethin' strange goin' on here.

I'd like to call upon my readers to go through any old posts or recordings they might have of Okie's and see if the writing style or speaking style changed over the past couple of years.  I ask this not because I'm an Okie fan or believer, but because I would like to follow up on any leads to see what trail of fraud I might discover.  Thanks for any help you guys can offer.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

UPDATE!!!   I was just getting ready to post this when I heard that Iraqi Dinar Money had done a review of Okie Oil Man's site which prompted the owner of the site to announce that it is closing down. I'm sure we'll have more to say about this later but right now I just don't have enough to go on.

http://www.iraqidinarmoney.com/okieoilman-net-review/

Here's Miskebam's post in response:

This is just the short side of what has taken place. I have made the decision to disassociate myself with OOM site. I have made my position clear from day one, that I built this site for a friend, and have tried to maintain the administration of it only, helping the moderators and admins when I can. When you build something through the forums, such as this, you must enter a name and address to register the domain. I never thought a thing of it, when I used my real name and home address, Hold that thought....

There are members out there that will tell you, (when I have noticed) that they registered using their real name or their email address, I would email them and tell them to please select another username for their own security. This site asks only for a username, email and password when you register. It asks other info yes, these are optional, as forumotion is a social platform, such as that used by gamers or people that come together for common interests. I have never pushed for people to use the social information part of this site. I have cautioned members to not detail how much dinar they have either.

I personally do not endorse nor sell anything. I have allowed placements of ads for dinar, and for AJs book, who is a retired lawyer, and business trusts were his expertise when he was working. His book tells how to make sure that your trusts are complete and has no holes with which to fall through. He has done classes for free to the members, so the price of the book, is not much for protecting your money from incomplete trusts. The forums and chat sites cost, and up until October of 2011, I didn’t have ads on any of the sites, I paid for the sites out of my own pocket. I charge a monthly rate for the ads, and am not privy to how much dealers make, by their placement on the site. I do not receive a kickback or percentage of anything.

There is a site that does “reviews” of other sites, and has now put out my name and personal home address, saying member beware of a site that offers advice and services but try so hard to cover their tracks. If I were a business, that was soliciting members for a product or service that I sell, then I could see where this statement would be called for, and if I were in it for this reason. I would have the address to the business and all information pertaining to listed. These are forums and chats, built for members that wish to discuss their common interests. There is no hidden agenda, so to put my personal information and my home address out there is only with malicious intent. I now have to live in fear for the safety of my children.

So, to let everyone know that doesn’t know, why I have these sites, here is a little run down:
After being on several sites throughout my time in the forums, several of us that were tired of the guru speak and the dictator style of some of the leaders of the forums, built a private site, so that our small group could discuss things that we had found in the news articles. This was Bizarre Dinar. I have had that domain registered to me for about 2 years. I use to study the Vietnam Dong… and wanted to be able to discuss the issues there with more people, and at the same time, we had decided to build a forum with which to discuss MORE of these types of things, and we didn’t want DINAR in the title, as we intended to use the site to keep in touch even after the RV that we are all waiting for, so that is where Changesxchange came from. NEWS ONLY, still NO GURU… and NO bashing. (I have since stopped studying the Asian currencies, as time does not allow)

Meantime, I built a site for Bondlady. She was getting slammed at some of the sites she was on for posting NEWS ARTICLES… at these other sites, she had developed a lot of friends that wished to discuss these articles, but she would get banned and unbanned over the whole deal. She and I had developed a friendship, so I offered to build her a site, so that she could post and discuss her articles. She didn’t know how to do this sort of thing, and it was an honor for me to build this for her, so that she could discuss whatever she wanted to without fear of being banned. Although my name is on the domain registration. Its her site, ran the way she wants it. Sambo and I only administrate the back room. Moving people to mod status, and helping with log in issues.

Which brings us to okieoilman. I don’t regret building something for friends, but the time has come for me to part ways with this, as I only built it because Okie is someone that I am friends with, and he was being exploited, taken advantage of and treated badly at the site he was on. I built it because there were plenty of people that had come to love Okie, and were exasperated and appalled at the way he was treated, and it was not for his sharing information. It was for his love of God, Family and Country. The fact that he is very open about some of his beliefs, that some did not agree with. I built the forum and chat for him without his knowledge, and gifted it to him the next day. My intentions were to put admins and mods there to run it. I had my site after all, and I figured this would be all there was to that. I envisioned at the most 5000 members over the full life of the site. I bit more than I could chew here, as there were 5000 within the first 2 weeks.
I have always made my position clear, and always tried to do my part of keeping members grounded. When I am on, and I see that they are upset over something that is said, I try to get them to focus on the news. In the last several months, you will see my postings have become less and less, and mostly they are me posting the news links to my site. Although I have become fond of a lot of the members on OOM… I can not be a part of this anymore.

I am closing the doors of OOM. I will leave the coffee shop open for a time, so that you do not lose contact with members that you have befriended, and I will leave the Holy Land tour, and the prayer link. But as far as being able to obtain any information regarding anything on the dinar, you will have to go anywhere but www.okieoilman.net

Here is a list of some places, especially for new people that get directed here.
http://www.dinardetectives.com/ (blog style - montage of daily quotes from all over the net)http://www.dinarrecaps.com/ (blog style - all things guru) http://www.bondladyscorner.com/ (chat & forum; NEWS ONLY - Bondlady and crew pick apart the days articles) http://dinaralert.webs.com/ (chat & forum; NEWS ONLY – Kaperoni and friends) http://phoenixrisingradio.net/ (blog radio & blog site - chalked full of good info, NO RUMORS, only facts)http://goingglobalea...t.blogspot.com/ (blog style – NEWS ONLY)

As for me, I have nothing to hide you can find me at
http://www.changesxchange.com/ This is a GURU FREE, NEWS ONLY, FACT BASED, BASH FREE site, I will be adding a chat room soon, for my friends that I have made that wish to come there, but only articles with links will be discussed. So if you are looking for rate/date, don’t bother. I have been done with the rumor mill for some time, and I now have a more pressing issue to deal with, and that will involve getting a security system in place for my home, talking with my attorney, and meeting with an agent that I know within the local FBI field office. I love Okie and always will, but I cant do this.

May the Lord Bless you and keep you,
Miskebam





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Tuesday, April 24, 2012

You Can't Con a Con

The strongest lure used by scammers and con artists is the lure of instant wealth or extraordinary profits, thus the old adage "if it sounds too good to be true it probably is".  Many dinarians (myself included) suspended our disbelief long enough to fork over a few hundred or a few thousand dollars on the chance that this could be the exception to the rule.  The con artists on the other hand took a different approach.  They saw the con, and they wanted in on it.  Over a billion dollars has been spent by speculators on dinar, dinar services, and dinar related products.  When you have that kind of money changing hands you better believe the criminal element shows up, and they're not buying they're selling. 

Here's the typical scenario.  Scammer #1 starts a dinar forum.  (I'm not calling all dinar forum owners con artists, but let's face it - many are.)   He starts pumping.  And pumping.  And pumping.  "The Kuwaiti dinar RV'd and made millions for the people who were smart enough to buy it at the right time.  Don't be left out with the Iraqi dinar like those who missed out on the Kuwaiti RV!"  "Bush said the war would pay for itself because he and Dick Cheney planned all along to revalue the dinar!"  "We have confirmation that the lower denoms have been printed and are stored at the CBI awaiting the RV!" blah blah blah .... pump pump pump .... all lies of course, but people believe and buy.  Oh boy, do they buy.  They buy dinar.  They join VIP.  They pay for intel.  They buy books.  WOW!  What a gold mine! 

So now scammer #2 sees how much money scammer #1 is raking in and says "HOLY $#1T!!! I want in on this!!!"  So what does he do?  Well he joins the forum and starts posting.  If there's a chat room he goes in there.  He starts gaining the confidence of other members.  Then he starts sharing his "intel".  "You guys don't know this, but I have a friend who is a contractor in Iraq.  We don't talk very often but the other day he calls me up out of the clear blue and says ..... (insert BS here)."  The next time he shows up everybody is quizzing him.  "Have you heard from your friend again?  Any news?"

In no time this guy has a following.  He starts exchanging emails with some of them.  Scammer #1 sees what Scammer #2 is up to and bans his a$$, but it's too late.  He's already got a following and they have his contact information.  He starts his own forum and his believers follow him over.  Before long his site is bigger than Scammer #1's site.

Enter Scammer #3.  Rinse and repeat.  After about four years of this you have literally dozens of sites doing innumerable conference calls with gurus galore.  Some of them are rate and date types.  Some are forex guys.  Some talk economics.  Some start pitching other products like health supplements, trusts, cookbooks, investments opportunities, or some MLM scheme.  Some "explain" the RV process.  Some are experts on Iraqi law, politics, history, or religion.  All scrambling for a piece of the dinar pie.  (Again, not everybody who comments on the dinar is a scammer, but many are.) 

And after all of these posts, all of these chat sessions, all of these conference calls, and all of this great intel and analysis where are we?  Since 2009 the IQD has moved from 1170 to 1166.  All that work for 4 pips, folks!  Think about it.  If you own a million dinar your profit from this movement is a whopping $3, and that's before you deduct any dealer markup or shipping fees.  If you own a billion dinar as SteveI claims your profit is roughly $3000 before markup and fees.  (Brilliant move there Steve.  You're out $20,000 - $50,000 you could have made in a more conventional investment.  But I digress.)  The money supply has gone from 25 trillion to 35 trillion despite claims throughout guruland that they're reducing the money supply by removing the notes with three zeros (another pumper lie).  The government is still squabbling.  Bombs are still going off.  There is absolutely no reason to conclude that anything substantial is going to happen any time soon with the IQD's exchange rate, and yet the pumpers keep pumping and the buyers keep buying.  New gurus pop up nearly every week.  Why?  It's the lure of the easy money.  As long as people keep buying the scammers will keep scamming. 

You can't con a con, folks.  But apparently those cons can con millions of people given the right conditions, and the dinar is the perfect storm for scammers.  Easy money.  Conspiracy nut fodder of a new world order.  Religious fanatics baited by the declaration of the fulfillment of prophecy or the supernatural transfer of wealth.  A troubled economy providing hundreds of thousands of desperate people.  And a generation of internet junkies who can't seem to pull themselves away from the computer long enough to get a life.  A scammer's paradise.

The more I dig the more I find out about the biggest names in the dinar world, the more convinced I am that they're dirty, and the more determined I am to see them exposed.  Stay tuned.




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Saturday, April 21, 2012

Douchie for April 15-21

Boy did we ever stir things up with last week's Douchie.  The winner, Enorrste, decided to come in and set us all straight.  The attack dogs came out in full force however, so he deleted his posts and left.  One of his supporters left a few profanity laced comments and one of his opponents posted his address and phone number.  That's a no-no guys.  The end result was twice as many comments as we've ever had following a post on this blog.  And this was on the heels of the Adam Montana/James Wolf post so it made for an exciting week or so.  (By the way, Enorrste and I exchanged emails and he's cool about it.  He even asked me if he gets a plaque or something for this award.  Maybe he's not such a bad guy after all.)  Things have calmed down a bit now, so it's time to stir them up again.

This week's Douchie goes to Delta, Frank Villa's Arab (?) translator and co-pumper.  In a conference call on Monday Delta made the following statements:


"I was told that they (Iraq) have pretty close to $2 trillion"

Told by whom, Frank?



"You need to ask yourself, if they have this kind of backup and you have all this money ... then why don't you revalue?"

Why indeed?  Maybe because they don't have anywhere near $2 trillion. 



"We all know they have currency printed out to come out right away even if they say they're gonna print more."

We know no such thing.  We've been told for a couple of years at least that they were printed but nobody has ever been able to produce one stinkin' photo.



"They have right now the 50, the 100, the 200 printed to go out and the 1 dinar, the 2 dinar.  So if they come out right now 1:1 that's the only thing you'll find they need."

They've already got a 50, Delta.  If they come out with a new 50 at 1:1 that's a lop, guy.



Then speaking about American Contractor he said:



"Most of his information is not true."

Unlike your information which is always rock solid.  Remember when you said your contact said they would RV before the summit last month?


"There is no bad news at all."

Really?  The street value of the dinar is going down.  The money supply jumped 20% last month.  There's ongoing tension between Maliki and Shabibi.  That's all good news for the RV I guess.


"Inflation has gone up to 8.3%.  That's gonna be a big disaster if they don't do anything."

I agree.  And what they've done in the past to combat inflation is make small adjustments to the exchange rate to bring it down.  So look for another 4 pip spike soon.  Come on 1162!!!


This is the second week in a row the Douchie has gone to somebody who attacked American Contractor.  Whether you like it or not folks, AC has been telling us for a couple of years that there's no substantial RV on the horizon and things are progressing in Iraq at a snail's pace.  So far he's been as accurate as anybody about the developments in Iraq.  Nobody's perfect, but given the track record of the likes of Frank and Delta the man known as American Contractor comes across as freakin' Nostradamus.


https://app.freeconferencecallhd.com/playback.html?n=-17-65-672030113-17-65-67785-62-9372-17-65-67-53-8582-17-65-67;0OTc3NDYwNjg=0


One final note.  This week a former Douchie recipient decided to hang it up.  Apparently his conscience got the best of him.  Kudos to Bear5642 for recognizing that he was hurting people and needed to walk away.  Here's hoping many more will either grow a spine or discover a conscience of their own.

10:09:21] BEAR5642: AFTER PRAYER AND CAREFUL CONSIDERATION I HAVE DECIDED TO TAKE A BREAK FROM THIS VENTURE. I AM NOT GIVING UP ON THIS INVESTEMENT I KNOW WITH ALL OF MY HEART AND I KNOW THEY WILL REVALUE. AFTER SPEAKING WITH SCOTTI THE PAST FEW DAYS I HAVE MADE THE DECISION TO STEP AWAY. AS A MINISTER I CAN NO LONGER BE APART OF THE LIES AND ACTUALLY TAKING PART OF SEEING SO MANY PEOPLE DISSAPOINTED DAY AFTER DAY WITH HEART BREAKING NEWS OF NO RV. I WILL STAND BEFORE GOD ONE DAY AND I WILL ANSWER FOR WHAT I’VE SHARED. I DON’T LIE OR FABRICATE ANY INFO! I FEEL IN MY HEART THAT NO ONE WILL KNOW WHEN IT WILL HAPPEN AND I WILL FOCUS MY ATTENTION ON MY RELATIONSHIP WITH GOD, JESUS, THE HOLY SPIRIT AND MY FRIENDS AND FAMILY. I LOVE THIS FAMILY IN OOM AND IT BREAKS MY HEART TO SEE THE DISAPOINTMENT DAY AFTER DAY. I WILL ONLY COME IN HERE IF STILL PERMITTED TO SHARE SOMETHING THAT IS TRUE AND I KNOW WILL HAPPEN. I LOVE EACH AND EVERYONE OF YOU AND A WORD OF CAUTION TO THE PEOPLE WHO BEAR THE MARK OF A CHRISTIAN DON’T POST IF YOU CANNOT BACK IT UP. IN HIS SERVICE BEAR 5642 GOD BLESS YOU
:11:58] BEAR5642: IT IS A SEASON I MUST TAKE TO CLEAR MY MIND AND HAVE THE RIGHT AND ATTITUDE AND I JUST DON’T WANT TO DISAPOINT OR BE DISAPOINTED ANYMORE WITH BOGUS INFORMATION





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Thursday, April 19, 2012

Marcus Curtis Update

Many people in the dinar world are familiar with the observations of dinar blogger Marcus Curtis.  He started his blog a couple of years ago and his work was copied and pasted all over the community.  He stepped away from the dinar for awhile to reprioritize his life.  I interviewed him a couple of months ago and he presented for us a list of dinar myths that need to be busted.  Well over the past week Marcus has resurrected his dinar blog with some startling comments.  Here's an excerpt:

I began to research a little in January of 2012 because I had some extra time on my hands. I began to look at Kuwait. I did key word searches. Basically I typed things like Kuwait+news+articles+1991. As a result I began to read through countless news articles from 1991. Way back when Iraq invaded Kuwait. I used different types of keyword combinations. What I found shocked me. Kuwait never revalued their currency! The central bank did not change the rate. As people fled they grabbed all the cash they could. When they got to countries along their border they began to exchange the Kuwaiti dinar for the currency they needed. This created a flood of Kuwaiti dinar in other nations. The value dropped on the black market because foreign banks and the people lost faith in the currency.

Saddam Outlaws the Kuwaiti dinar and it falls in value. He said that people needed to trade in their Kuwaiti dinar for Iraqi dinar before Oct 6 1990. When America begins to regain Kuwait the value rose again. It is important to note that this is not a result of the bank changing the rate. It is a result of the black market interpreting the news of the day. This is the same thing stocks do. It is the same thing that happened when Saddam tried to adjust the rate of the Iraqi dinar and said it was worth more than it was towards the end of the 80’s. But outside Iraq. The Iraq dinar was trading for less.

The important thing is the central bank never adjusted the rate below 3 dollars. In fact, The Kuwaiti central bank was occupied by Iraqis and they were not open for business! When America came to the rescue of Kuwait primarily because of the petro dollar agreement they kicked Iraq out. When the people regained their country everything was up and running just 7 months later. All the oil well fires were put out, and everything was almost back to normal. Kuwait redenominated. The only reason for this was because Saddam took a bunch of Kuwaiti dinar from the Kuwaiti central bank.

This is an entirely different scenario then what happened in Iraq. Kuwait’s currency was not expanded because of sanctions and they did not have a period of hyper-inflation. This completely threw me for a loop. I always thought and was told that what happened in Kuwait was going to happen in Iraq. Kuwait never had over a trillion in circulation. You see when it comes to any denomination going through a revalue the money supply is key. This is because there is a debt liability with a revalue. They can’t just say it is worth x amount. The government itself is on the hook for that amount. Money=debt and debt=money.


You can find Marcus' blog at http://iraqcurrencywatch.wordpress.com




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Tuesday, April 17, 2012

Dinar Corp

Many of you have heard of Dinar Corp recently as they've been featured in a couple of popular conference calls.  I thought you might find it interesting to read what DinarFacts at Iraqi Dinar Money had to say about them. 

http://www.iraqidinarmoney.com/dinarcorp-com-review/


Sunday, April 15, 2012

Douchie for April 8-14

This was a hectic week with the discovery of the videos that gave us a positive ID on Adam Montana and the furor that ensued.  I didn't have the usual amount of time to listen to and read through the typical guru BS.  From what I did see there really wasn't much going on.  The only thing that jumped out at me was Enorrste's response to American Contractor's comments on the suspension of the deleting of the zeros. 

These gurus have been telling us for two years that "deleting the zeros" means removing the larger notes in preparation for the RV.  In fact some gurus claim that the 000 notes are all gone.  Now suddenly we hear that they're putting the "delete the zeros" program on hold?  Does that make sense?  They removed them and then decided not to remove them? 

But enough about the news.  Let's get back to the Douchie.  I'm not going to address the discussion about the CBI and the GOI and who has the constitutional authority to do what.  I'll leave that for conference call debates.  What I want to focus on is the RV hype.


Enorrste: The CBI is ON RECORD that the RV will raise the value of the IQD to about $1 per dinar, and that the rate will rise gradually up until September, at which time the new currency will be issued to coincide with the existing currency.

Caca del toro!  The CBI never said they were going to RV to $1.  They have clearly stated numerous times that they will re-denominate.  If they achieve parity with the dollar it will be done with a lop and
a subsequent or perhaps simultaneous RV of roughly 16%. 


Enorrste: The money supply will not rise. In fact it will fall dramatically. Not only have most of the large notes already been withdrawn (Shabibi stated so) but the few that remain will disappear after the $1 RV, probably in the near future. By September there will be no large notes left.

Caca del toro de nuevo!  Shabibi never stated that most of the large notes have been withdrawn.  This is the same claim that won a Douchie for Randy Koonce last week.  And if deleting the zeros means removing the large notes from circulation, and if they have already removed most of them, then what sense does it now make to say that you're not going to remove them?  What?  Are they giving them back now?


Enorrste: The currency, per their own press conference, will consist of 1 to 100 dinar notes, with values of about $1 per dinar. Therefore the money supply will DROP from the current 25 trillion dinars to about 25 billion dinars

Um .... how ya gonna go from 25 trillion to 25 billion without a lop, guy?


Enorrste: AC is mistaken and needs to do his homework before bloviating

Enorrste then went on to berate American Contractor, claiming that he was more concerned about his reputation that he was about the truth.   Are you for real, E?  You consistently distort what is coming out of Iraq and then accuse others of not caring about the truth?  You subject us to these countless filibusters and then you accuse AC of bloviating?  And if anybody needs to check their homework it's you, amigo.  Remember a few months ago when you said that when Iraq's oil production doubles their oil revenues would go up to $1.82 trillion a year?   It would only be $182 billion a year.  Your math is as bad as Adam Montana's. 

In my time as a dinarian there is nobody who has proven more credible than American Contractor.  People have been bashing him for years, saying Iraq will RV and he doesn't know what he's talking about.  So far he's been right and his critics have been wrong.  Especially Enorrste with his silly little conspiracy nut RV book, complete with references to the Mossad and Operation Rainbow.  So congrats to Steve "The Professor" Norris, a.k.a. Enorrste for winning his first Douchebag Award, although a Windbag might have been more appropriate.   


4/16/12 ... UPDATE!!!  Steve decided to delete all of his comments and screw up the thread, but my readers are pretty smart.  One of them had the presence of mind to take a few screenshots of Steve's comments and he sent them to me this morning.  Thanks callingfoolsout!












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Wednesday, April 11, 2012

The Montana Trail (part 3)

In previous posts I have shown my research on Adam Montana.  In "The Montana Trail (part 1)" I showed that he was a mod on Med's site Dinar Veterans before starting Dinar Vets.  Then I showed how there was a sense in the dinar community that Adam knew nothing about the dinar and took all of his information from Med.  In "The Montana Trail (part 2)" I showed that he has several dinar websites and domain names linked together and registered under the name James Wolf a.k.a. "Wolfyman".  I showed an excerpt from a post Adam did where he said he used to be a corporate recruiter.  I showed that there was a corporate recruiter named James Wolf in Fond Du Lac, Wisconsin that was described as a talented con artist who has no professional credentials or education.  I showed that he also ran an adult website with Prose Only when he lived in Brookfield, Wisconsin.  I also showed how the court documents from a copyright infringement lawsuit listed his residence as Lomira, Wisconsin which is south of Fond Du Lac.

According to My Life the James Wolf who lived in Brookfield now lives in Greenville, Wisconsin which is just a few miles down the road from Neenah, Wisconsin - a city in an address Adam Montana has used.  He is 35 years old, which would have made him 15 years old at the time that he supposedly made a wad on the Kuwaiti "RV".  According to F8 who comments here at DDB there is no James Wolf listed as a Harvard graduate which is another one of Adam's claims.  If that's true, and if Adam Montana's real name is James Wolf then obviously he is a fraud.  But there was also an older James Wolf who lived in Fond Du Lac where the headhunter service Priceless Professional Services was located, and one in Sheboygan so I couldn't be sure which one (if either) was Adam Montana.

I posted my research back in November, hoping that somebody would follow up on it and maybe turn it over to some authorities, but apparently nobody did.  So back to work I went, determined to solve this case once and for all.

James "Adam Montana" Wolf
I have now discovered where I got off track in my previous research.   The James Wolf living in Fond Du Lac was listed as between 50 and 54 years old, and there was a mug shot of a James Wolf age 53 living in Sheboygan that I thought might be Adam Montana.  But if Adam is 53 it's not the same James Wolf as the one in Greenville, obviously.  I overlooked the fact that the James Wolf who lived in Brookfield and now lives in Greenville used to live in Lomira which is only 15 miles south of Fond Du Lac.  How I missed that I have no idea, but I have now connected those dots.

I found his Facebook page and watched his videos and the voice is a match with the one in Adam's audio ebook and conference call recordings.  There is no doubt in my mind that this is Adam Montana.  He likely never went to Harvard.  He can't do basic math as I have pointed out more than once.  He didn't profit off the Kuwaiti dinar.  (DUH!)  It's highly doubtful that he has any CBI contacts.  He knows squat about the dinar.  I believe that his background is just what susanf67 in Fond Du Lac said - that of a talented con artist (click on Messages under Public Clarification Board), and he has now gained the confidence of thousands of dinar investors who are making him rich even without an RV.

Compare the voice in the above video taken from James' Facebook page with this voice from an interview Adam did last year.  (18 minutes in) http://www.blogtalkradio.com/earths-secrets/2011/02/16/dinar-news-special-guest-adam-montana-author-of-rv-intel If you have Adam's audio ebook Real RV Intel you have an even better recording for comparison.
In The Montana Trail (part 2) I mentioned Mike Gill and Marshall Donnerbauer as possibly being "Adam".  I have nothing linking Marshall to Adam but Mike's address matches an address that Adam has used so I haven't eliminated his involvement.   As I said in The Montana Trail 2 it's quite possible that Adam Montana is several people working together.  Adam has referred more than once to the Dinar Speculation "team".  Maybe Mike is a part of that team, but I think it's also possible that James just swiped Mike's name and mailing address to try and cover his tushie.
To the members at Dinar Vets let me say please don't just dismiss this as bashing.  Take the time to read through my research first and form your own conclusions.  Like many of you I once envisioned Adam as an educated, middle-aged man with a strong background in currencies and investment.  Instead, my research suggests that Adam Montana is actually a 35 year old high school dropout who has run an adult website and has been in jail for domestic violence. I'm not going to waste a lot of time trying to convince people who want to believe in Adam and his opinions on the dinar. I'm just going to say that he's a fraud, plain and simple. You've been warned, folks!

If you'll go to http://wcca.wicourts.gov/simpleCaseSearch.xsl and type in Wolf James D for the name and 06/27/1976 for the DOB in the search engine you can review a list of his court records.  (Unclick where it says "When searching using the Birth Date field, also show parties without a birth date" if you don't want to sort through dozens of listings that don't apply.  If you want to view all of his records leave it checked and just look for the year 1976.)
For further consideration:
http://www.youtube.com/user/Smelleet
http://hiddenhilary.deviantart.com/journal/So-over-the-CRAP-now-236751904 Amy Coon a.k.a. Megan Donahue was James' girlfriend who worked with him at Priceless Professional Services in Fond Du Lac.  (The Montana Trail 2)



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Tuesday, April 10, 2012

1166

Just in case any of you have any doubts about whether any of these gurus have legitimate sources and intel, think about this.  A couple of months ago the IQD rate was adjusted from 1170 to 1166.  This was the first movement we've seen in three years.  Quite a development, right?  You'd think that if anybody had any contacts who really know what's going on they would have said something. 

Which gurus told you that there was a rate adjustment coming that week?  Yeah, I know .... damn near all of 'em.  But which guru said the new rate would be 1166 IQD to 1 USD?  Did Adam Montana say anything about it?  After all, he claims to have a contact at the CBI.  How about Okie?  Frank?  (His sidekick Delta claims to have CBI sources too.)  TerryK?  Jonnywg?  Footforward?  Studley?  Bulldog?  TonyTNT? 

I don't recall one of them saying anything of the kind.  It was all "you'll like the rate" or "it's going live this week at $7" or "things are looking good for us".  Not one guru said "hey everybody, I just talked to my contact in Iraq and the IQD is going up 4 pips this week!".  The same goes for the newshound gurus, reading all of the statements and watching the policy coming from Iraq.  How many of them thought that this was their next move?  Something to think about.

Sunday, April 8, 2012

Douchie for April 1-7

Well this week was kind of a letdown for a lot of dinar hopefuls.  The hangover from drinking the koolaid still hasn't worn off for some.  The big buildup for the Arab summit triggering the RV led to yet another disappointment, but the gurus were out there pumping out new dates and rates as if nothing had happened.  Well ... okay I guess nothing did happen.  But you know what I mean.

4-6-2012 Okie_Oil_Man it took awhile but here is the latest intel reported by impeccable sources--the r/v did occur and it encompassed 11 countries of which the iqd and vnd was 2 of them. They ran tests individually thru the system and was successful. There is still a very strong possibility (know what the word possibility means??) that it will be released when the hawaii banks open today.

Yeah, I know what "possibility" means. Do you know what "impeccable" means? Dictionary.com defines it as "faultless; flawless; irreproachable". Given that definition I would describe your sources as very peccable.

4-6-2012 Bluwolf ALL IS DONE...JUST WANT YOU ALL TO REALIZE THAT YOU WILL BE DECLARED MILLONAIRES WITHIN HOURS.

48 hours and counting .....

4-6-2012  Bluwolf 525 IS NOT A RATE AT ALL, THAT IT IS EITHER A SWIFT OR A MT OR A CURRENCY CODE BUT IT IS NOT A RATE, THE RATES THAT YOU WILL SEE WILL BE OF DOUBLE DIGITS AND VERY HIGH... ALL RATES ARE TO BE LOCKED IN AT 10:15 PM PST TODAY FOR SURE...NOTHING IS HOLDING IT AND NOTHING WILL.

speaking of "very high" .... nah ... too easy!


But what really caught my attention this week was not the typical rate and date stuff from the obviously clueless intel gurus, but flawed analysis from a couple of guru "newshounds" with large followings of people who reject the Okies and Johnnwgs of the dinar world.

On Wednesday Adam Montana served up this jewel:

[Adam Montana] let me make ONE point. Wealth cannot simply "disappear", it can only change hands
[Adam Montana] Iraq was once a VERY wealthy country, with a currency valued at 3X the USD
[Adam Montana] now, you'll hear the l0psters talking about M2, they say you can't simply revalue the currency and gain money, etc etc.... the same goes for DEvaluing the currency. It does not matter how many 0's they have on their bills, it doesn't matter if there's 16 gazillion of these Dinars in circulation, because the notion that their wealth simply "disappeared" 8 years ago is a complete sham
[Adam Montana] it didn't disappear. Iraq still has the same wealth that they did in the past, it's just hidden behind a ridiculously undervalued currency
[Adam Montana] UNDERVALUED. When they FIX that value, the wealth doesn't magically reappear, it is simply re-RECOGNIZED


http://dinarvets.com/forums/index.php?/topic/112643-adams-drive-by-4412

OMG!!! Where to begin?  Iraq was never a wealthy country.  They had a valuable currency, that's true.  But their people were always poor for the most part and their GDP was never terribly impressive.  During the 1970s they experienced a booming economy, but once Saddam took over the reins in 1979 and plunged them into the war with Iran that ended.  The sanctions imposed after Desert Storm led to further economic decay.

Iraq - GDP Per Capita 1950-2008

Wealth disappears all the time.  It's called supply and demand.  Every bear market on Wall Street ends in a reduction of wealth.  Conversely every bull market brings an increase in wealth.  When Iraq's currency depreciated after Desert Storm the demand for their currency declined, so a certain amount of wealth was lost.  By the way, the dinar was valued at 3000 dinar to 1 USD back in 1995, Adam .... 17 years ago instead of 8.  So you're right I suppose.  The notion that Iraq's wealth suddenly disappeared 8 years ago (something the pumpers like to assert when they try to convince you that it can suddenly reappear) is a sham because it didn't happen.  It declined as a result of the sanctions imposed after Desert Storm (and massive government printing) rather than suddenly disappearing as a result of the invasion in 2003 as you stated.   

Following your logic every country with an abundance of natural resources (Venezuela and Brazil, for example) that suffers from hyperinflation ends up with an "undervalued" currency.  Why don't they just "FIX" that value so that it can be "re-recognized" rather than re-denominate as Venezuela and Brazil did?  Because you can't, Adam.  No more than you can "unscramble" an egg.  In order to fix the value of the IQD you would have to undo the last 22 years of Iraq's history.  Undo Desert Storm.  Undo the sanctions.  Undo Saddam's massive printing of currency.  Undo the Oil for Food program.  Undo Iraqi Freedom.  Undo the insurgency.  Unless somebody comes up with a time machine that ain't gonna happen.

The dinar's value didn't disappear overnight because of some plot by Dick Cheney and the global elite to steal Iraq's wealth.  It depreciated because of the events that unfolded just like Japan, Germany, and Vietnam's currencies did.  None of those countries "fixed" their currency's value with an RV and Iraq won't either.   

By the way, Iraq's currency was never "devalued" as you stated.  Look up the word and you'll see that it's a policy driven reduction in a currency's value.  The dinar's value was driven down by market forces (depreciation), not "devalued" by the CBI.  Geez, I thought you went to Harvard.

And then this from Adam on Thursday:

Iraq has already overcame 99.9% of the hurdles that they needed to get over.   (Has overcame, huh?  Nice grammar there, Mr. Harvard grad.)  They've accomplished what they need to accomplish, and it's now "poop or get off the pot" time...at this time we're looking for the SAME THINGS AS LAST WEEK: (And every other week for the past year) HCL, Chapter 7, RV. It's really that simple. I'm still sticking to my "now to September" timeline.   (As opposed to your "RV by Thanksgiving" timeline from last year?)

http://dinarvets.com/forums/index.php?/topic/112776-adams-official-chat-4512



Also this week Randy Koonce held a post-Arab summit conference call to put his followers at ease.

"All the "three zeros" which drives me up the wall ... when people start talking about the 86 cents ... 1) they don't understand economics 2) they don't understand what's being said in the paper - the "three zeros to be removed" only means to get them off the streets ... you can't remove 70% of a rate, okay?  how do you remove 70% of $.00086?  you don't!  it has to be talking about a physical bill.  It's Shabibi, remember?  He's the guy you listen to, not the other guys. Shabibi's the one who said he had 70% of the bills removed from the streets.  All right?  So those are where you've got to focus.  Keep your eyes on what's real.  Don't get your eyes on things that aren't real.  Okay?"

http://files.thevideochannel.net/uploads/fplayer.php?play=2-378931120404_A.mp3

Okay!  What's real about "Shabibi said he had 70% of the bills removed from the streets?"  When did he say that?  If you're referring to the article where they stated that they had removed 70% of excess liquidity I think you need to study up on what excess liquidity means.  It has nothing to do with pulling in the larger notes.

The CBI currently shows 28 trillion dinar outside of the banks.  At your RV rate of $3.41 that would take the value of the dinar in circulation from about $24 billion to about $82 trillion.  That's more money than most economists believe exists.  Now who doesn't understand economics?

Randy I have always considered you one of the good guys.  Even though I don't agree with your view on the RV I have never had any reason to believe that you are lying or profiting in any way off of the dinar.  But this has me stumped.  Do you really believe that Shabibi stated that they have removed 70% of the large notes?  And if they removed 70% of the three zero notes what did they replace them with?  A buttload of 50s, 250s, and 500s?  If  your response is "US dollars" then why wasn't that reflected in their reserves?  This "70% of excess liquidity"  report came out nearly two years ago.  Are we supposed to believe that the Iraqis have been getting by for nearly two years on nothing but lower denoms and USD? 

So this week we have a couple of newshound gurus - Adam Montana and Randy Koonce - sharing the Douchie.  Those of you who have followed this blog for a while know that I consider these "experts" who "explain" the RV as more dangerous than the intel rate and date guys because so many people believe they know what they're talking about.  (Do your own research folks!  IT'S YOUR MONEY!!!)  I hate to award one to Randy since he seems like such a nice guy, but that's the judge's decision.  If Randy can document his claim that Shabibi said they've pulled in 70% of the 000 notes I'll gladly withdraw it.

Thursday, April 5, 2012

A No-Brainer?

I've heard many people sum this investment up as a no-brainer.  They state that the downside is only 20% or so and the upside is a potential windfall in the millions.  If that was the case I would agree that it's a no-brainer, but I don't believe these people realize the true potential downside and upside.  That's one of the reasons I started this blog.

The downside here is very simple.  You could lose everything you invest.  There's no guarantee that you will be able to exchange your dinar for USD when Iraq re-denominates.  You could be left with worthless currency if Iraq decides to only honor in country exchanges or if the dealers all disappear after a lop.  And even if you are able to exchange, who's to say that the rate will remain where it is now prior to the RD?  Contrary to the opinion of many investors, the dinar could depreciate much further than it already has.  Currently the dinar is close to 1000 to 1 IQD to USD.  Prior to Turkey's RD they were at about 1,000,000 to 1.  If the IQD depreciates further prior to the RD your downside potential increases far beyond 20%.

Here's a theory on how things could unfold presented by one of our regular DDB commenters named F8.

"Say you have accumulated 10 million dinar and think you're gonna be rich. Iraq announces that they are going to replace the currency with the new 'no zero' notes. Being a typical dinaidjit, you think you're rich! but eventually it will get pounded into your head that no, it's just like everyone has been saying, (on DV they had to say it in a special closet, but still) it's a straight LOP. That's okay, you think, long term investment and all, so you begin to make your plans to swap your old notes for the new. No bank will touch it, they've all said for years they wouldn't and for the love of Bob, it wasn't just smoke and mirrors, they really aren't going to touch it. So you call your online pump it up dinar dealers. No one answers. Hell, they've known all along, and once the word was out, they wisely went into hiding at an undisclosed location with Dick Cheney. For there safety. About this time, you finally get a straight answer that the expiration date that the desperately stupid on the forums is not only real, but you're gonna have to go to Iraq, not to cash in and be rich, but just to keep from losing the 10 grand you have in the dinar in the closet. So you look on priceline.com and find out it's gonna be $1500 and take two days (actual Priceline price, I checked) but hey, if you don't go, you're gonna lose it all because even Ebay at $350 a million is drying up by now, you're not the only one panicking. So you take a week off work, get your flight and go, with 10 million dinar in your checked bag, to Kuwait. There you find that to rent a car to go to Iraq is illegal, so you have to hire a driver from the livery service adn this is a big boom to them, another $1,000. You hate to do it, but you're gonna lose $10,000 so you do. You get to the border and the customs agent opens your bag, has a big episode and eventually explains to you that it's illegal to bring in a) any b)more than X Dinars, but this being Iraq, if you give him half of them, he'll not notice the other half. Now you're getting pissed, but hey, half or nothing, so you negotiate (thanks for the advice on cash in Adam Montana!) him down to giving him 3 million and letting you keep 7 million. Okay, you've flown around the world, taken a week off work, paid bribes spent big money for a flight, car etc...now after a night listening to the bombs go off in town, you finally make it down to the local Warka Bank. You want to both cash in, and check up on the $2500 you deposited there when the very smart Guru told you to. You're very happy they're still open. after the stories of them being insolvant etc... SO you go in the bank, the teller tells you that yes, the accounts are fine, although all the citizens lost 25% of their deposits. What? The foreigners? Well, they lost everything, the recovery funds only paid out Iraqis. So sorry. So, let's cash in your dinar for the new notes, shall we? You can cahs in as much as you want, up to 1 million dinar per day. You have 7 million? Oh my, why would anyone want to cash in 3 and a half years pay all at once? Sorry, there are no exceptions. So you go get a room, cause, well, this is gonna take a week. Your livery won't stay a week, but he'll gladly come back next week to pick you up, it'll only be $1500. The bank takes the 10% tax Iraq has imposed on all foreign cash ins. So lets recap, $1500 for the flight, $2500 for the car, $500 for a hotel room, $3000 for the bribe going into the country, oh, and we didn't mention the $1500 more they took to let you leave with more than the limit, either. Can you see where this is going? People are gonna lose everything because even if you have ten million, it's gonna cost that much or more to simply exchange them old notes for new. And that's why the dealers are gonna be hard to find."

Chew on that for awhile.  As for the upside, there's no way that anybody will receive 1000 times their investment.  Given Iraq's money supply, rate of oil production, GDP ... etc. the most they could conceivably support would be a few cents which would amount to no more than 50 times the initial investment, and that's nothing more than a remote possibility.  In all likelihood the rosiest scenario is making about a 300% ROI if Iraq lops and then RVs up to $3+.

So instead of looking at this as a no-brainer because the most you can lose is 20% and you could potentially make millions, I think potential investors should look at it this way.  "I could lose everything and the most I could make is probably only 2 or 3 times my investment."  I have to wonder how many would invest thousands or tens of thousands of dollars looking at it that way?  If a no-brainer is something you don't even have to think about then I guess I would refer to this as a brainer, because there's plenty to consider.

Wednesday, April 4, 2012

John Jagerson Interview Follow Up

Back in January I was privileged to be granted an interview with currency/investment analyst John Jagerson.  He's the first and only person I've interviewed whose livelihood depends on knowing what he's talking about when it comes to investing.  That interview prompted a lot of discussion and I invited John back recently for a follow up discussion. 

Sam: Breitling’s crowd has made some comments about things like “I bet John owns dinar” and “John ignores the fact that the CBI says it wants the IQD valued at $1”. How do you respond?

John: First - I get people asking me if I really own a bunch of dinar but I am not sure why. I think they are just incapable of believing that anyone wouldn't be a believer in some kind of mythical RV. But really I have no idea why people ask me that so often. I can say that I don't own dinar, haven't owned any in the past, and don't plan to in the future.

I don't think I have much to say about the claim that the CBI wants the dinar to be equal to a dollar. I haven't seen any official statements from the CBI about that. There is no link provided or anything in that response to my interview with you so I couldn't give any comment about it but it sounds pretty fishy to me. I have seen stuff like that appear on message boards (usually sent to me as "proof" that the dinar is going to RV) but they are always quoting un-named sources at the CBI.

For instance I saw an article kind of like that recently in
almowatennews.com that quoted "a source" at the CBI saying that the goal is to get the dinar to a rate of 1-1 with the dollar after dropping 3 zeros from the currency. So what? Lets just assume that the source was real and that the CBI really does want to do that. It means they will redenominate the dinar (no gains for anyone there) to be worth 1.17 to the dollar or so and then try to push the currency another 14% against the dollar? Any currency could move that much against the dollar in 2012 and you wouldn't have to pay a 20% spread.

But - let me defer a little bit on this one and I will admit that just because I haven't seen an official statement from the CBI doesn't mean one doesn't exist. If such a statement exists on the CBI's website, lets take a look at it and discuss its implications. I would love to see a link to something that doesn't go to a rumors news site, YouTube, or a message board.



Sam: What's with the church connection - Babylon rising and all of that?

John: I get comments and letters quite a bit from people who got sucked into the dinar-vortex through their pastor or some other connection at church. First, I should mention that I am not picking on anyone’s religion. People can believe whatever their conscience dictates, but close-knit church organizations can also be a breeding ground for scams because members trust each other and don’t recognize the “wolf” in their midst.

The bible is full of references to a strong Babylon in the ‘last days’. You can find them in Isaiah, Jeremiah and Revelations. I will leave this to the religious to decide whether these references actually refer to a physical Babylon (Iraq) located in the same place or just general wickedness among modern nations. The idea promoted by the scammers is that if Babylon rises and the end is near (both very big assumptions) then why not profit by buying their currency (the dinar I guess).

This argument can be very persuasive because it builds on very strongly held religious beliefs. In other words the scammers are trying to make a logical connection between the truthfulness of biblical prophecy and the legitimacy of the dinar as an investment opportunity. However, this is actually a logical fallacy called a non-sequitur. In other words the argument’s conclusion does not follow from its premises.

Whether biblical prophecy is true (or even being interpreted correctly) is moot and is actually just a poorly disguised version of the “currencies = stocks” argument. Whether Iraq is the biblical Babylon or not doesn’t matter. The question investors should be asking themselves is whether a currency appreciates in value when an economy grows? If they will look at that argument objectively they will find that this does not follow. Most quickly growing economies have weakening currencies and those few that have had the opposite have tried to slow the growth as much as possible.

My assertion here should be easy to refute. Find an economy that is growing quickly with an appreciating currency over the last 30 years. There will be periodic spikes but even when it does happen we are talking about a few percentage points – nothing like what dinar investors are expecting and it almost never happens in the long term.


Sam: Why don't growing economies want an appreciating currency? Wouldn't that be a good thing? Why do so many of them avoid it?

John: Most economies want a stable currency not a growing one. In the case of oil economies they have to be very careful about a growing currency because their oil exports will exceed imports. Imagine that Country-X imports $10B (oil is priced in dollars mostly) of oil from Iraq in a given year. They pay for that oil in dollars that are then converted into dinar to pay the bill for the oil domestically. If the money supply in Iraq was kept stable and not increased this would mean demand for dinar would rise against a stable amount of dinar – which drives its value up. So then the next year, costs of production and such are still the same but the dinar has grown so much in value relative to the dollar that Country-X is going to buy cheaper oil from Saudi Arabia, Russia, the U.S. or Norway instead.

Oil exporting economies deal with this by sterilizing the money flow. If dinar is demanded for the oil transaction then the central bank will issue new currency (credited to the banks) to increase its supply in return for government debt. It doesn’t take that much debt to do this relative to the size of exports and has been shown to be quite effective with other exporters in the area. That way the dinar does not become anti-competitive with other oil exporters.

This is not a secret and is quite common among basic material exporters. For example, the Australians and Brazilians are two basic materials exporters who run into problems with appreciating currencies all the time but manage it (as loosely as they can) with the debt/money supply relationship I described. The issue everyone wants to avoid is a fast shift in the balance. If investors shift very quickly away from an economy and start pulling investment back out it can lead to a significant devaluation.


Sam: How do oil exporters freeze or peg their currency?

John: For a large economy it is impossible to completely freeze your currency but you can get very close. A central bank will lower the value of its currency if the ratio to the dollar is falling by buying foreign assets (government debt) with dinar. That increases the value of the other currency relative to the dinar. A depreciating currency can be managed by tightening monetary policy and setting higher interest rates, bank reserves, or by selling foreign assets. This is all done through open market activities by the central bank. Open market activities are almost always a loss but considered necessary by most modern economies. It is done on a day to day basis and can be quite predictable in normal market conditions.


Sam: Where do dealers get the dinar in the first place?
 
John: Same place everyone gets hard-currency – the banks. You can (please don’t) order bulk currency direct from several banks in Iraq. Shipping, registration and delivery is a little complicated but its certainly possible. In fact, some of the banks have teams in place to help dealers take delivery as easily as possible. My understanding is that this is a small business for most of them, but it can contribute to overall margin. This is not unique – you can order almost any other currency from banks around the globe. Again, there are some registration requirements to import hard currency in quantity but you can do it if you want.

I know the scammers have elaborate excuses for this but I have honestly never figured out why dinar investors don’t just open bank accounts in Iraq denominated in dinar. If an investor was convinced the dinar will appreciate why take the risk and costs of holding the physical currency? The scammers will say that deposits will be treated differently than hard currency in a future “RV” but doesn’t that sound self-serving? And of course you could look at other revaluations (discussed in the last interview) and redenominations to see if that ever actually happens that way and find out that it doesn’t.

My last comment is that some people are really keen on saying that my arguments are "full of holes" but they aren't very specific. My challenge to Tony Elder (AKA Brietling) or Dorman or any of these pumpers is to put up or shut up. Get very specific about what I am not correct about and let's pick a neutral third party to curate a debate. I am skeptical that they would do that for the same reasons they won't even use their real names but I would be willing to do it.


Sunday, April 1, 2012

An April Fool Douchie

April Fool, everybody!  I'm not shutting down.  I know some people aren't happy to hear that but  .. too bad!  Now let's see what kind of April Fool jokes the gurus play on all of us.


The Arab summit has come and gone, and the IQD is still stuck at $.00086.  WOW!  Who saw that coming?  Me, that's who.  Along with most of my subscribers.  But the speculation and anticipation was running rampant as the week progressed.  RV before the summit.  RV during the summit.  RV after everybody leaves the summit.  RV will be announced in the mosques .... etc etc. 

3-29-2012  BlainoWE HAVE IN OUR POSSESION FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW PROOF POSITIVE THAT THERE IS AND HAS BEEN FOR A BRIEF TIME AN ACTIVE BUY RATE (NOT PENDING) ON THE IQD, FIRST TIME IN MANY YEARS. WE ARE ARRIVED AT THAT PLACE IN THE CHAIN OF EVENTS WHERE A REVALUATION COULD HAPPEN AT ANY TIME.

If this is the first time an RV could happen then why were you calling the RV nearly a year ago, Blaino?  Remember this from May 27, 2011?

"I AM CALLING IT! WE HAVE AN RV! THEY WILL POST THE RATE IN HOURS! CONFIRMATION JUST IN FROM DUBAI AL MADDEN FROM GET TEAM HAS ALSO CONFIRMED...VIA A FOREX CONTACT IN DUBAI. I SUPPOSE SOMETHING CAN STILL GUM UP THE WORKS..BUT MAN MALIKI SAID IT..IN PUBLIC AND ON TV! WELL...WHAT A NIGHT"

If I had been running this blog back then you would have won a Douchie. 

3-29-2012  Hammerman -  All reliable INTEL comes from Iraq...ERBIL DONE CHAPTER 7 DONE, 100% done. It is over. It will be on the big screens in Iraq in a few hours. We expect the R/V to follow shortly - maybe tomorrow. We expect it to be anounced in the mosques...at PRAYER TIME on FRIDAY...but no later than April 1st. We also heard Iraq will not R/V while there are ANY foreign dignitaries in Iraq. Summit ends 9 PM Iraq time tonight. ALL foreign dignitaries from all nations must be out of Iraq before they will R/V.

Why would they announce adjustments to the exchange rate in the mosques?  These pumpers are trying to exploit our western ignorance of Arab culture.  Iraqis don't know any more about economics and monetary policy than most Americans do.  Can you imagine going to church on Sunday and hearing an official announcement that the Fed is going to raise interest rates?  Besides, many Iraqis like Tariq Aziz are Christian and don't attend a mosque.  Any changes will be announced on TV and the CBI website like they always are.  This "they'll announce the RV in the mosques" line is at least two years old.  I'm telling you guys, they're running out of material!  LOL!!!

3-28-12
kaperoni: In recent days there has been some talk about a certain Iraqi citizen. That he went on a conference call and made statements that may have implied a LOP if you believed his understanding of the event.

kaperoni: Well, nobody knew that he also sent me an email with this little gem….
kaperoni: “they are paying all employees salaries with lower Denoms now.”
kaperoni: So what does that mean?
kaperoni: It means clearly that Iraqis for some time have been paid in 50, 250, and 500 dinars at the banks. We already knew that months ago…but this quote adds more factual support to what is happening. And this little piece of information goes a long way to support the theory that if the CBI was in fact removing the larger notes as we say, his statement supports that information and confirms we are accurate in “delete 3 zeros,” or now known as “lift 3 zeros”.

I checked with this certain Iraqi citizen and as suspected there was nothing to this.   Later in the week however, Kap himself acknowledged the possibility of a lop. 

3-30-2012  "here are the facts: 32 trillion dinar, you can take 10 trillion off that for foreign reserves that leave 22 trillion, now we need the CBI to collect most of that to get that to about 1-4 trillion then they can RV at 1 to 1 and support it, if that does not happen, there is no solution but a LOP and then a RV and you will get little return"

Nice going, Kap. 

But this week's Douchie has to go to Bluwolf for this idiotic post on Saturday.  (I swear sometimes I think these guys read my blog and are actually competing for the award.)

[bluwolf] NOW IS THE TIME,,FOOTFORWARD DECLARED IT,,GOD INSPIRE HIM AND MANY FROM ALL CHURCHESWeaver: bluwolf I am Declaring the $25 that Shabibi spoke of last April..in New York… [bluwolf] .weaver YES IT SHOULD BE AROUND THATbluwolf] MONDAY IN GODS TIME. OK GET MY DRIFT[.weaver] blueblaze1962 I am only quoting Shabibi…that is not what I said…Shabibi said that himself…last April..in New York…[.weaver] And remember…that was before they found the HUGE oil field in the Kurdistan Region…then..they found a HUGE Diamond mine..then..they find more Gold Mines…OH MY….[bluwolf] .weaverWHEN I SAID THAT A MONTH AGO THESE GURUS SAID THAT I WAS CRAZY AND A LIER,,NOW WE SHALL SEE
xyz] bluwolf when are we going to be able to verify/confirm beyond any reasonable doubt? ty [bluwolf] xyz WHEN THE BANKS INFORM US OFFICIALLYaniandquin1] bluwolf three weeks ago I meditated on our RV and I was “told” two things- $21 and april 1st[bluwolf] daniandquin1 WELL THAT IS CORRECTannabelle] bluwolf Does is appear that rats, gnats and those trying to block the progress of the RV are taken care of? Thanks:) :) [bluwolf] annabelle YES AND I AM SURPRISE THAT THE MEDIA HAS NOT SAID ANYTHING IN THE USA[4shore] bluwolf bluwolf Good morning…Can you tell me why banks do not wire funds on the weekend? Thanks.
[bluwolf] 4shore FOR BANKS DO NOT WIRE ON WEEKENDS MANY BANKS AROUND THE WORLD ARE CLOSED
bluwolf] TODAY REMAIN IN CONSTANT PRAYER,,DECLARING IT DONE,,AND IT SHALL COME TO PASS
[atmead] bluwolf Your intel does not waver/ thank you for being and island in the storm [bluwolf] atmead TY I LIKE THAT ANOLOGY
[crimson] bluwolf Are you already on the plane/ :) [bluwolf] crimson NO BUT IT IS ON STANDBY RIGHT NOW, AND THAT IS A FACT
[sonnayhwh] bluwolf are they side-stepping the system to release this weekend? [bluwolf] sonnayhwh NO
[bluwolf] I WILL BE GOING TO THE CHURCH ON THE MOUNTAIN IN A LITTLE WHILE AND I WILL BE DECLARING IT TO THE HEAVENS UNTIL IT IS DONE,,NO MISINFORMATIONS,NO CELL CALLS,NO EMAILS JUST ME AND HIM IN SILENCE.

In this one post Bluwolf manages to get in a lie about Shabibi saying $25, several references to God, church, prayer, meditation ... etc. and one reference to a plane on standby.  Quite an effort, huh?  By the way, Bluwolf is the first Puerto Rican to ever win this award.  ¡Felicitaciones!

 

Shutting Down the Blog

Upon obtaining legal counsel I have decided that it's time to shut down this blog.  After tonight the information contained here will no longer be accessible.  Thank you for your support over the past six months.  I wish you all well in your future endeavors.

-Sam